Interior Housing Markets to Shine in 2012 - BCREA 2012 Second Quarter Housing Forecas

(June 06, 2012 , posted in BCREA Monthly Update)

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to 74,800 units this year, before increasing 4.9 per cent to 78,500 units in 2013. Since 2009, annual home sales in the province have hovered in the 74,000 to 78,000 unit range. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"Despite a sizable increase in consumer demand in Kamloops, the Okanagan and the North, some moderation in the Metro Vancouver region will pull BC home sales lower this year" said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Persistently low mortgage interest rates are expected to continue to underpin home sales and affordability in the province."

"An increase in the proportion of home sales in the Interior combined with fewer luxury sales in Vancouver will cause the annual average price in BC to decline nearly 4 per cent this year" added Muir. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to dip 3.9 per cent to $539,400 this year, and increase 1.4 per cent to $547,000 in 2013.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 14.5 per cent to $4.0 billion in May compared to the same month last year. A total of 7,715 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 1.8 per cent from May 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $519,923, 12.9 per cent lower than a year ago.

"BC home sales were back on track in April and May compared with last year's performance, after falling short of the unusually strong first quarter of 2011" said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

"Recovery of the BC Interior housing markets continued unabated in May, noted Muir. Despite a nearly 16 per cent dip in home sales in Vancouver, provincial totals were down just 2 per cent from levels a year ago."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 15.5 per cent to $17 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 7.9 per cent to 31,497 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 8.3 per cent lower at $540,270.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that during the first half of 2012, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 17.1 per cent to $20.4 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 9 per cent to 38,312 units, while the average Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential price was 8.9 per cent lower at $533,681.

"The pace of home sales slowed during the first half of the year, said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. However, the downturn is likely to be temporary as population growth, persistently low mortgage rates and encouraging employment figures suggest a stronger second half of 2012."

"The 5-year conventional mortgage rate remains within 5 basis points of its 20 year monthly low. BC's population is growing by approximately 45,000 individuals a year. Full-time employment climbed 3 per cent during the first half of 2012 at the expense of part-time employment, which declined 1.9 percent."

The dollar volume of homes sold through the MLS® in BC declined 24.1 per cent to $3.4 billion in June compared to the same month last year. A total of 6,815 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 13.8 per cent from June 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $503,232, 12.0 per cent lower than a year ago.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 12.9 per cent to $3.1 billion in July compared to the same month last year. A total of 6,482 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 0.8 per cent from July 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $474,954, 12.2 per cent lower than a year ago.

While some potential homebuyers in Vancouver are taking a breather over the summer months, stronger consumer demand continues across the rest of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® residential unit sales outside of Vancouver were up 11 per cent in July over a year ago. In contrast, home sales through the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver were down 18 per cent over the same period.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 16.5 per cent to $23.5 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 7.9 per cent to 44,794 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 9.4 per cent lower at $525,183.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to edge down 4 per cent to 73,400 units this year, before increasing 7.5 per cent to 78,900 units in 2013. Since 2009, MLS® residential sales in BC have ranged between 74,000 to 78,000 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"Despite more robust consumer demand in the Interior, fewer home sales in Vancouver will pull the BC total lower this year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, a notable growth trend in full-time employment combined with persistently low mortgage interest rates is expected to boost housing demand around the province in 2013."

"MLS® residential prices are expected to remain relatively stable this year and through 2013, with changes in average price statistics largely the result of a differing mix of home types sold and shifting regional demand patterns," added Muir. Average price data for Vancouver was skewed artificially high in 2011 by a wave of detached home sales in the priciest neighbourhoods. Lower Mainland's share of provincial home sales is expected to decline to 58 per cent this year from 62 per cent in 2011. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to decline 7.8 per cent to $517,500 this year, and remain relatively unchanged at $519,000 in 2013.

As a Vancouver real estate consultant, my business grows by building strong client focussed relationships. I would welcome the opportunity to answer any questions about the Vancouver (and neighbouring cities) real estate market.

If you would like to find out how much your home is worth in today's market, to discuss listing your home or buying a new home, please contact me on (604) 781-5692 or via email - tim@timwray.ca

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